5K Account Flip (100% Return) Challenge: Completed!
With still 10 more trading days in March, I've flipped my 5K account with a bonus $100 extra to spare - I've already withdrawn 2.1K profits in February and 3K today to get back to my base 5K account.
I refuse to screw up this time.
That’s what I keep telling myself every single day. My job is to simply execute my edge based on my now 3+ years of screen time with NQ. Focus on risk before profit, and simply walk away and end your day when you bag a single 50-100p trade.
The good: my patience to sniff out entries and opportunities has improved immensly, as well as my flexibility on bias - I’m not afraid to flip long if price action and order flow are compelling - even while I have a short on, and vice versa. Done are the days of trying to prove something against the market with some stupid ego - you don’t get in the way of a market where literally billions of notional are exchanged hands in a single day.
One thing I’ve been thinking about a lot recently is something my old mentor and friend Retail Capital realized eventually too (much to his great improved success), along his trading journey, the simple phrase: “how can I join?”. If you see bullish price action, a bullish overall HTF, and bullish orderflow, have patience for a pullback and get in where the risk to reward makes sense. Likewise, if all the signs are bearish, don’t FOMO in shorts with a poor entry. Wait for a pop and try a short with a tight stop. The worst is to ignore this notion completely - blindly attempting to knife catching selloffs with longs or shorting highs (“I’m getting in long here - it can’t go down any further, can it?”). Of course, in hindsight, these always look like the “best trades”, but in the moment, these tops or bottoms are nearly impossible to call or predict in real time, unless you have some higher timeframe confirmation, confluence, or have large orderflow confirmation. Blindly fading markets on hopes of price reversal alone is typically a fast track to the poor house. And this is real trading, where we make money, not some YouTuber influencer B.S., where they claim they bottom or top tick their entries every single session. Gimme a break.
Another good: I also find I’m looking at charts less than when I was in my early learning years. I still watch quite a lot just because I love watching the auction develop, but more often, I find myself just watching without the extreme desire to immediately get in a position. There are even - gasp - rare days where I just don’t trade, or days where I’ll book a big 100p+ trade in globex and skip RTH. This is a whole new world for me.
Now, the bad: Even now, I still struggle with execution, which is just stupid, I guess. What’s a $100 charge when I see now the performance I’ve had over the past two months?! (I say $100 because a 50p stop with 1 MNQ is my standard stop size, considered ‘large’ by some, though to be honest, I don’t know how people use smaller stops seriously without getting run every single time). My execution anxiety is just the nature of putting on risk, I suppose (“what if I’m wrong??!?!”). Also bad: I occasionally reach for larger size, 2-3 MNQ, if down on the day. This is a slippery slope and is the path to blowups, I know! I think the next step for me as a trader is completely accepting red days, and that it is a normal part of the business. Perhaps entry improvement is something for me to work on in the coming months to get to the next level. If I can keep my performance up, however, I can’t help but think about sizing up eventually! My sizing / account plan is nothing fancy, basically just as follows:
- 2-3 MNQ default lot size on a 10K account
- 3-4 MNQ default lot size on a 15K account
And that’s about it for now. Once I get to 3-4 MNQ, that would translate to at least 5-6K a month with my current edge. (I realize fully as well that increased size makes execution that much more challenging mentally). For now, I’m more than happy with just continuing clean execution and seeing the capital pile up throughout the month than having visions of granduer throwing down 3-5 NQ lots like I know some of the real veterans are doing. Maybe someday 😉
Market Thoughts
For anyone interested, my general thoughts on the good ol’ nas. I’m bearish despite the incredulous stubbornness of the Nasdaq to bounce off of these swing lows (I count quite literally NINE times off of those lower levels). Of important note to me is the poor low that was left behind exactly at 24000 on the overnight last monday on the old H contract (we’re nearly 100% into M contract in terms of volume as of today, March 17th) Anyway, if you’ve read my stuff for a while, you know a lot of my trade ideas revolve around the concept of incomplete or unfair auctions - and a poor low in the overnight at a mechanical level like 24000 is just stupid. I think it breaks sometime soon - as in this back half of March or April at the latest. (To note: this is approximately 24200 on the M contract, I believe - but buyer (or seller?) beware - it is NOT a poor low on the M contract!) For additional reference, these are the $580 swing lows on QQQ, or 24300 on NDX.
Also, the past two cash sessions both have large open-to-close gaps up (largely due to contract roll, I presume), and BOTH remain unfilled. Absolutely no fear into FOMC, PPI, and whatever the hell else is going on this week - and with the macro backdrop!?Strange, to say the least, in my opinion. Furthermore, VIX crushed from 25 to 22 today… on FOMC eve? I mean, I’ve got only got just under 3 years under my belt as a futures trader, but something seems fishy here… to be sure, there will be spicyness before the close on Friday; of that much I am sure.
That’s it for me, cheers, and stay safe out there in these wild markets!
Retail, if you ever read this, miss you buddy. I just wanna say resoundinglyb (and obviously now) I did NOT quit (I guess I couldn’t let myself) - so here’s to a fantastic 2026!
As always, none of this is financial advice - I’m literally a software engineer who loves markets and trading, and I enjoy sharing my journey. Until next time!